According to scientists, the spread of the Ebola epidemic and air passenger data projections until October 24 this year, the Ebola virus spread to France, the probability is 75%, the probability of arriving in the UK was 50%.
Scientists said that if the spread of the Ebola epidemic intensified, the virus reached Europe only a matter.
NEW YORK, October 6, scientists based on the spread of the Ebola epidemic trends and projections of air passenger data before October 24 this year, the chances of Ebola virus spread to France for 75%, the probability of arriving in the UK for 50 %.
Reported that these data are fully loaded passenger keep passengers on the basis of projections. Given the current epidemic many airlines began to reduce the onset of the region went to flight, if Airbus transport reduced by 80%, then the chances of the virus spreading to France is still 25%, the probability of spread to the UK, compared with 15%.
Ebola virus outbreak since March this year in West Africa, has led to more than 3,400 people were killed. And now spread very quickly, there are nearly 7200 people infected. Nigeria, Senegal and the United States were still appear infected.
France is one of the next most likely to occur where an infected person, because the spread of the Ebola virus in several countries worst, Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia are speaking countries Nair and French with French traffic is very frequent, and Britain’s Heathrow Airport is one of the world’s busiest airports.
Before Britain and France were once infected with the Ebola virus, a citizen shipped home, and its cure. But scientists worry that some people may not know they have been infected under circumstances carry the virus home.
Special observation track the spread of Ebola British Lancashire University of virus experts Gai Sela said, “If as many people as expected, West Africa, the virus spread more serious condition, then infected with the virus to Europe by plane only time the problem. “
According to the study, the scientists calculated the probability of viruses Belgium is 40%, Spain and Switzerland probability of 14%.
World Health Organization has so far not issued a travel ban. However, British Airways and Emirates airlines have canceled some flights.
In charge of the investigation Boston University 威斯皮格纳 Nigeria pointed out that in the occasion of the virus continues to spread risk are changing every day.
He said, “This is not an absolute data, but the possibility, but this possibility is increasing for everyone and this is good and who is lucky and who’s bad luck thing.”
Ebola virus infectivity in patients with late onset strongest. The incubation period of the disease may take up to 21 days, which means that the patient initially infected have no symptoms, but also knowledge.
A few days ago the United States appear first cases of Ebola cases. Patients named Duncan (Thomas Eric Duncan), is a Liberian citizen, he confirmed infection in the city of Dallas, Texas, on September 30.
Duncan has been a few days before the diagnosis of isolated time in contact with healthy people, the United States Department of Health may have been in Texas for about 100 people come into contact with an infected person inspection measures taken.