Ebola virus infection model predicts will continue to increase

Northeastern University, Boston, USA physicist Alessandro Vespignani begin by modeling to understand how deadly Ebola virus spread in West Africa. According to the current trend, expected to grow from the current more than 3000 cases and 1500 deaths rose to about 10,000 cases, and then there will be more cases.

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If the virus continues to spread at the current rate, Alessandro Vespignani’s model predicts that, as of September 24, Ebola virus infection will be close to a million people. (Source:. A VESPIGNANI)

Northeastern University, Boston, USA physicist Alessandro Vespignani hopes his latest work will be proved wrong. July, Vespignani begin by modeling to understand how deadly Ebola virus spread in West Africa. According to the current trend, the sick and the rapid increase in the number of deaths expected from the existing more than 3000 cases and 1500 deaths rose to about 10,000 cases (ended September 24), and then there will be more multiple cases. Vespignani said: “These figures are really terrible.” But he stressed that the assumption of the model is based on the current control measures did not follow the premise. “We all hope that this situation will not happen.”

Vespignani is not the only one trying to predict how people will develop the Ebola epidemic. Recently, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that the number of patients will eventually be more than 2 million people. Scientists around the world are busy creating a computer model to accurately describe the spread of this deadly virus. But not all researchers are like Vespignani so pessimistic. However, all modelers believe that current prevention and control measures are not sufficient to curb the spread of this deadly pathogen.

Wellcome Trust, London, UK head of infectious disease expert Jeremy Farrar said that in the control of outbreaks, the computer model is very useful. They can help like medical supplies and personnel to predict such an institution WHO needed, and what interventions will best containment. Epidemiologist at the University of Bern in Switzerland, one of the modeler Christian Althaus said, WHO and Samaria Rescue Committee (a relief organization against Ebola virus) have made contact with him, want to learn to predict the results of the model.

Due to a lack of understanding of the current outbreak and mode of transmission of the Ebola virus, the modeler also encountered difficulties. For example, scientists have known Ebola virus funeral of the deceased will spread the virus, but the number of people infected through this way is still unknown. University of Florida biostatistician Ira Longini said: “Before this, we know very little about the Ebola virus, the development of epidemiology is very imperfect.”

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